Is there a relationship between the value of a squad and its chances of success?

    Direct relationships are often established between a squad's valuation and its success level. But is the implication of players' market values so significant in the results obtained? Through data, we will try to clarify this question.

    In the primary analysis of results, the investment and valuation of a squad seem to play a significant role in a team's chances of success and, consequently, of the club that houses it. The belief is that a more valuable — and usually more costly — squad is closer to achieving sporting objectives.

    Statistics can help, in cases like this, to confirm the thinking or debunk the discourse. In this analysis, we will try to elucidate the relationship between the value of Argentine football squads and the points obtained by the teams, drawing conclusions that other relevant evaluations can complement.

    For this purpose, we considered all matches played during 2023, including international cups, qualifications, and league matches. These data were contrasted with the valuation of the teams from Transfermarkt in November 2023 in millions of euros.

    We also used the index, Points Obtained vs Matches Played, to assess the efficiency of teams throughout the year in all matches played. This led us to a scatter plot comparing these two factors.

📊 Points Obtained Annual Table vs Squad Valuation in Millions of USD – 2023

With this statistical analysis on the table, we can draw some interesting conclusions to take into account:

▶️ River Plate is the team that achieved the best relationship between the valuation of its squad and the points obtained during the year 2023.

▶️ Godoy Cruz (1.54) and Rosario Central (1.59) achieved a high Points/MP efficiency index, with a squad valuation below the league average. With squads valued at around 20 M€, they obtained more than 60 points during the year.

▶️ Squads like Vélez Sarsfield and Argentinos Juniors have a valuation of over 40M€ but have not obtained a corresponding points harvest.

▶️ Boca Juniors has the second most valued squad in Argentine football, but its points harvest was not at the same level. With a squad valued at 79 M€, it obtained fewer points than Estudiantes de la Plata, Talleres, and San Lorenzo, which have a squad value 30M€ lower.

▶️ Newell's Old Boys, Defensa y Justicia, and Lanús have squads with similar valuations but have achieved dissimilar results throughout the year.

▶️ Defensa y Justicia was one of the standout teams of the year. The Florencio Varela team achieved the fourth-best points per match average of the year (1.62), despite not being among the most valued squads in Argentine football (33M€).

▶️ Talleres (1.63) and Estudiantes de la Plata (1.67) had a standout performance during 2023, achieving a place among the best points efficiency indices.

▶️ If we add up the valuations of the squads of Sarmiento, Platense, Central Córdoba, Barracas Central, Instituto, and Godoy Cruz, we get the squad valuation of River Plate.

▶️ Belgrano is another team with very good points efficiency in relation to its valuation. With a squad valuation of 22 million euros, it achieved a good points index (1.39).

    The conclusions are varied. There are clubs whose squad has a high market valuation, but the results do not follow in the same direction. In contrast, we can see less valued squads whose statistical levels in points collection surpass others.

    With all this, we have one certain result: the value of a squad, often accompanied by significant investment, does not necessarily guarantee sporting success. Perhaps we need to look for this relationship between money and results in other aspects of squad building. The likelihood of achieving positive campaigns seems to be more associated with the long term and the seriousness of projects than with the wallet. We will try to demonstrate this through data in future analyses.

Moroni Mariano

Fuente: DataMoroni